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Homme
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Homme
Cloud 9
Joined on 4/29/21
ChiralAnomaly
The SPC forecast is only meant to highlight a general area that is at risk of some type of severe weather. Severe storms are small scale features and the conditions can vary greatly from place to place. And forecast bust (where the actual outcome falls short of the indicated probabilities) is very possible too. It is not a chase forecast.
That's why storm chasers look at the actual radar, in addition to radar-assimilated hourly models like the HRRR. Severe weather potential is at least conditional on storm mode, mesoscale environment and individual storm interactions. No one can predict them accurately more than a day in advance.
Sometimes the SPC mentions the uncertainties and range of possible scenarios in their MD.
Reganati
It wasn't only the spc i looked at, i looked at the mesoanalysis, some sounding data near my area. I remember somewhere between 1600-2300 j/kg of cape, minimal capping, and there was a decent amount of shear. The main threat was a wind threat due to the linear outflow based storm mode. I remember a break in the line forming, and the line never recovered.