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MILTON - Is Florida Cooked?

Posted by Reganati - October 8th, 2024


idk any floridians but whatever


Hurricane Milton is shooting straight for florida, right now it is a cat 5, with winds of 165 mph. It reached a peak of 180 mph yesterday... It's not gonna make landfall as a cat 5 but regardless i wouldn't focus too much on the category because the surge is gonna be bad regardless.

iu_1281538_9133341.webp

Nearly the entirety of florida is under some type of tropical watch or warning, with a big ol' hurricane warning slicing the state in half. Remember: A hurricane/tropical storm watch means tropical storm/hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, and a warning means tropical storm/hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

iu_1281539_9133341.webp

The surge with this storm is going to be terrible which is why i say it doesn't really matter the storm isn't a cat 5 at landfall... Also note there is going to be 3-5 ftt surge on the east coast of FL, because the storm could still be a hurricane/strong tropical storm when it exits florida.

ANOTHER note: not everywhere within say the tampa bay will see 12-15 ft surge, It means somewhere in that zone, 12-15 ft surge is possible, on top of high tide.


I'm not a meteorologist im just a dude if you want a forecast go to hurricanes.gov or nhc.noaa.gov

iu_1281540_9133341.webp

shiver me timbers



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Comments

GET OUTTA HERE AS FAST AS YOU CAN!

The highest storm surge along the west coast was 5 feet. As I understand, peak forecast surge is default to be the worst case scenario that is unlikely to be the most likely outcome.

Storm surge is enhanced by a number of factors: Lower central pressure of a storm, larger size of a storm, a track perpendicular to the coast, high-tide. So look for these factors to estimate the potential for significant surge.

Milton was not a large storm and its central pressure has risen rapidly due to weakening. The landfall time did not coincide with high tide. These factors have led to a much lower surge height than most people in the general public were told to expect. Terrain might have also played a part.

And it is true that the Category of a hurricane does not necessarily correlate with surge height. Sandy 2012 was a very large Cat 1 storm that brought more than 12 foot of surge to the East Coast.

oh god